The potential loss of gains by ‘guessing’

This paper focuses on the effect on returns caused by trying to time markets. The theory behind this is that we tend to ‘think’ we have the skill to time markets, although the decision is often driven by fear or greed to be invested or not. Research suggests that we do not have this skill of foresight, and nobody, not even Mr Warren Buffet, could convincingly attest to this. The…

2020 outlook: late-cycle relief

Key Takeaways Macro: We expect a late-cycle relief rally in 2020 as industrial production rebounds and recession risks recede. Fixed income: With global growth likely to revive and central banks on course to keep short-term interest rates low, yield curves should steepen. Currencies: The US dollar may correct from the position of strength it has sustained for several years, relieving pressure on emerging market currencies Emerging markets: Despite the headline noise, most emerging markets…