The potential loss of gains by ‘guessing’

This paper focuses on the effect on returns caused by trying to time markets. The theory behind this is that we tend to ‘think’ we have the skill to time markets, although the decision is often driven by fear or greed to be invested or not. Research suggests that we do not have this skill of foresight, and nobody, not even Mr Warren Buffet, could convincingly attest to this. The…

2020 outlook: late-cycle relief

Key Takeaways Macro: We expect a late-cycle relief rally in 2020 as industrial production rebounds and recession risks recede. Fixed income: With global growth likely to revive and central banks on course to keep short-term interest rates low, yield curves should steepen. Currencies: The US dollar may correct from the position of strength it has sustained for several years, relieving pressure on emerging market currencies Emerging markets: Despite the headline noise, most emerging markets…

October 2019 PMI still stubbornly below 50 neutral mark

Highlights ______________________________________________________________________________________ • The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for October 2019 improved to 48.1 index points from 45.1 index points reported in September 2019, although still below the neutral mark. • Four out of five main sub-components improved in October 2019, although all sub-indices are still below the 50 neutral mark. • Employment expectations remain low due to the weak growth outlook. Meanwhile producer inflation has been subdued and has…