2020 outlook: late-cycle relief

Key Takeaways Macro: We expect a late-cycle relief rally in 2020 as industrial production rebounds and recession risks recede. Fixed income: With global growth likely to revive and central banks on course to keep short-term interest rates low, yield curves should steepen. Currencies: The US dollar may correct from the position of strength it has sustained for several years, relieving pressure on emerging market currencies Emerging markets: Despite the headline noise, most emerging markets…

October 2019 PMI still stubbornly below 50 neutral mark

Highlights ______________________________________________________________________________________ • The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for October 2019 improved to 48.1 index points from 45.1 index points reported in September 2019, although still below the neutral mark. • Four out of five main sub-components improved in October 2019, although all sub-indices are still below the 50 neutral mark. • Employment expectations remain low due to the weak growth outlook. Meanwhile producer inflation has been subdued and has…